Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
