Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
